UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.