🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "severe repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, Trump eventually imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously hindered Putin's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

But, with his latest 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively compromise that very independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. However, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a charred swath of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Concessions

Although maintaining in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative places no equivalent limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not