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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.