🔗 Share this article

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.

But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.