‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.
The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.
"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a official of the a major restaurant body.
Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are adopting solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers note a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Official Position
Yet, the government states there is no shortage.
India has more than a vast number of household consumers and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.
Growing Panic
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is cooking gas, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges price gouging.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
